2025 Year-End Mortgage Market Recap: What This Year’s Rate Shifts Mean for 2026 Borrowers

January 9, 2026
First Time Homebuyers
3 min read
First-time,Home,Buyers

As we close the book on 2025, the Canadian housing market looks significantly different than it did just twelve months ago. For homeowners and prospective buyers in Winnipeg, this year has been a whirlwind of regulatory changes, interest rate shifts, and new provincial budget measures.

If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, you might be wondering: Is 2026 finally the year to make my move?

To help you navigate the changing landscape, we’re recapping the major mortgage reforms passed in 2025 and what they mean for your borrowing power in the coming year.

The Game-Changers: New Federal Mortgage Rules of 2025

Several significant federal “rules of the road” changed this year, specifically designed to improve affordability and help first-time buyers enter the market.

1. 30-Year Amortization is Back

One of the biggest headlines of 2025 was the federal government’s expansion of 30-year amortization periods. Initially available only for first-time homebuyers purchasing newly constructed homes, these rules were expanded to include more insured mortgage scenarios.

  • The Impact: Stretching your payments over 30 years (instead of the standard 25) lowers your monthly obligation, making it easier to qualify for a mortgage and manage cash flow

2. Insured Mortgage Cap Raised to $1.5 Million

For years, buyers could only get a high-ratio (insured) mortgage on homes priced under $1 million. In late 2024/early 2025, this cap was raised to **$1.5 million**.

  • The Impact: This is a massive win for buyers in higher-priced markets, but even here in Winnipeg, it offers more flexibility for those looking at luxury estates or newer developments without needing a full 20% down payment upfront.

3. Stress Test Rate Cut

After years of high hurdles, the qualifying “stress test” rate saw a reduction of approximately 50 basis points in 2025.

  • The Impact: A lower stress test means your income can technically “carry” a larger mortgage amount, increasing your purchasing power just as inventory levels in Manitoba begin to stabilize.

Manitoba Focus: Provincial Changes Affecting You

It wasn’t just Ottawa making moves; the Manitoba government introduced key budget measures in 2025 that directly benefit local residents.

  • Homeowners Affordability Tax Credit: To combat rising costs, the province increased this credit to a maximum of $1,600 (up from $1,500) for the 2026 property tax year. This puts money directly back into the pockets of Winnipeg homeowners.
  • Renters Affordability Tax Credit: For those saving up to buy, this credit was also boosted, helping potential future buyers save their down payment faster.

Forecast: What to Expect in Winnipeg for 2026

As we look toward 2026, the consensus among economists is a “gradual recovery.”

  • Interest Rates: With inflation moderating, the Bank of Canada has signaled a continued (though cautious) downward trend for rates. This could mean more attractive variable-rate options and lower fixed-term offers in Q1 and Q2 of 2026.
  • Winnipeg Market: Unlike the volatile markets of Toronto or Vancouver, Winnipeg remains steady. We are seeing a balanced market where buyers have time to negotiate, supported by the new affordability rules mentioned above.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?

    While no one has a crystal ball, most major economists forecast a continued gradual decrease in rates throughout 2026 as the Bank of Canada aims to stimulate the economy.

    2. Can I get a 30-year mortgage for an older home?

    Under the new 2025 rules, 30-year amortizations for insured mortgages are primarily targeted at first-time buyers and new builds. However, if you have a 20% down payment (uninsured mortgage), 30-year amortizations have always been an option.

    3. How much do I need for a down payment in Winnipeg now?

    For homes under $500,000, the minimum remains 5%. For homes between $500,000 and $1.5 million (the new cap), it is 5% on the first $500k and 10% on the remainder.

    Ready to Plan Your 2026 Move?

    The rules have changed, and your strategy should too. whether you’re a first-time buyer navigating the new 30-year amortization rules or a homeowner looking to renew, you need a mortgage plan tailored to your financial goals.

    Contact Laurie Boudreau today to schedule a free consultation and see how the 2025 market shifts can work in your favor.
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